I didn’t think I’m an overconfident person. In fact, I might have thought I am under-confident, until I took this test. I first read this from Ian Ayres’ Super Crunchers. So please humour yourself while you take this test. For each question, state the low point AND the high point. You cannot say “I have no idea”. You must be able to guess that the deepest point in the ocean is more than 2 inches and less than 100,000 miles (say).
- What was Martin Luther King, Jr.’s age at death?
- What is the length of the Nile River, in miles?
- How many countries belong to OPEC?
- How many books are there in the Old Testament?
- What is the diameter of the moon, in miles?
- What is the weight of an empty Boeing 747, in pounds?
- In what year was Mozart born?
- What is the gestation period of an Asian elephant, in days?
- What is the air distance from London to Tokyo, in miles?
- What is the deepest known point in the ocean, in feet?
Answers provided at the end of this post. Do play it. It’ll make the point I’m trying to make later more relevant. I was surprised at the result myself.
If all ten intervals include the correct answer, you’re under-confident. You can be 100% certain that Mozart was born between 200 B.C. and year 2000. But almost everyone who answers these questions has the opposite problem of overconfidence – they can’t help themselves from reporting ranges that are too small. People think they know more than they actually know. *
I have no problem with overconfident people. In fact, I would suggest some people to build more confidence in themselves! I’m more curious about the fact that this overconfidence is an unconscious decision.
As I’ve previously said, I didn’t think I’m an overconfident person, and yet, I got 5 wrong answers. Apparently, according to the book Super Crunchers (who quoted a test conducted by Ed Russo and Paul Schoemaker), most people missed 4 to 7 questions.
So what?
I think it highlighted an important observation in a lot of areas of our lives. Using my Tai Ji class as an example, people are often overconfident with their skills that they feel the need to teach it, whether it’s right or wrong. We can be so overconfident so much so that we try to brush aside other people’s ideas / opinions. Sometimes, it literally meant pushing aside the bodily force in a push hands contest, which firstly, is not a contest and secondly, is not push hands either.
I’ve been wondering why this is the case, only to find out that we’re all hard-wired to do this (as much as numbers can prove).
Can we rise above this overconfidence?
The book offered an example from someone who tried. He initially fell into it, but was soon quickly aware of what he’s doing and changed tack. I guess being aware is always a good first step, as with a lot of things. Just knowing that you’re overconfident can help you recognise the need to be humble to learn the things that are important to you.
Do try it in your learning experience. Share it here if you can.
Answers: (1) 39 years. (2) 4,187 miles. (3) 13 countries. (4) 39 books. (5) 2,160 miles. (6) 390,000 pounds. (7) 1756. (8) 645 days. (9) 5,959 miles. (10) 36,198 feet.
* This section is wholly quoted from the book Super Crunchers.
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